A Comparison of Soil-Moisture Sensitivity in Two Global Climate Models

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1476-1492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Warren M. Washington
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Moisture Sensitivity

scholarly journals Varying soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in Central Europe

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

Abstract. The frequency and intensity of climate extremes is expected to increase in many regions due to anthropogenic climate change. In Central Europe extreme temperatures are projected to change more strongly than global mean temperatures and soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to this regional amplification. Because of their strong societal, ecological and economic impacts, robust projections of temperature extremes are needed. Unfortunately, in current model projections, temperature extremes in Central Europe are prone to large uncertainties. In order to understand and potentially reduce uncertainties of extreme temperatures projections in Europe, we analyze global climate models from the CMIP5 ensemble for the business-as-usual high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We find a divergent behavior in long-term projections of summer precipitation until the end of the 21st century, resulting in a trimodal distribution of precipitation (wet, dry and very dry). All model groups show distinct characteristics for summer latent heat flux, top soil moisture, and temperatures on the hottest day of the year (TXx), whereas for net radiation and large-scale circulation no clear trimodal behavior is detectable. This suggests that different land-atmosphere coupling strengths may be able to explain the uncertainties in temperature extremes. Constraining the full model ensemble with observed present-day correlations between summer precipitation and TXx excludes most of the very dry and dry models. In particular, the very dry models tend to overestimate the negative coupling between precipitation and TXx, resulting in a too strong warming. This is particularly relevant for global warming levels above 2 °C. The analysis allows for the first time to substantially reduce uncertainties in the projected changes of TXx in global climate models. Our results suggest that long-term temperature changes in TXx in Central Europe are about 20 % lower than projected by the multi-model median of the full ensemble. In addition, mean summer precipitation is found to be more likely to stay close to present-day levels. These results are highly relevant for improving estimates of regional climate-change impacts including heat stress, water supply and crop failure for Central Europe.

Initialization and Potential Predictability of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (13) ◽  
pp. 5205-5224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso ◽  
William J. Merryfield
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Temporal Variance ◽  
The Tropics

The initialization and potential predictability of soil moisture in CanCM4 hindcasts during 1981–2010 is assessed. CanCM4 is one of the two global climate models employed by the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) providing operational multiseasonal forecasts for Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Soil moisture forecast initialization in CanSIPS is determined by the response of the land component to forcing from data-constrained model atmospheric fields. We evaluate hindcast initial conditions for soil moisture and its atmospheric forcings against observation-based datasets. Although model values of soil moisture variability compare relatively well with a blend of two reanalysis products, there is significant disagreement in the tropics and arid regions linked to biases in precipitation, as well as in snow-covered regions, likely the result of biases in the timing of snow onset and melt. The temporal variance of initial soil moisture anomalies is typically larger in regions of considerable precipitation variability and in cold continental areas of shallow soil depth. Appreciable variance of initial conditions, combined with persistence of the initial anomalies and the model’s ability to represent future climate variations, lead to potentially predictable soil moisture variance exceeding 60% of the total variance for up to 3–4 months in the tropics and 6–7 months in the mid- to high latitudes during hemispheric winter. Potential predictability at longer leads is primarily found in the tropics and extratropical areas of ENSO-teleconnected influences. We use lagged partial correlations to show that ENSO-teleconnected precipitation in CanCM4 is a likely source of potential predictability of soil moisture up to 1-yr lead in CanSIPS hindcasts.

scholarly journals Increased Drought Risk in South Asia under Warming Climate: Implications of Uncertainty in Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2979-2996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saran Aadhar ◽  
Vimal Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Warming Climate

AbstractObserved and projected changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and drought are not well constrained in South Asia. Using five PET estimates [Thornthwaite (PET-TH), Hargreaves–Samani (PET-HS), Penman–Monteith (PET-PM), modified Penman–Monteith (PET-MPM), and energy (PET-EN)] for the observed (1979–2018, from ERA5) and future warming climate, we show that significant warming has occurred in South Asia during 1979–2018. PET changes show considerable uncertainty depending on the method used. For instance, PET-TH has increased significantly while all the other four methods show a decline in PET in the majority of South Asia during the observed period of 1979–2018. The increase in PET-TH is substantially higher than PET-HS, PET-PM, and PET-MPM due to a higher (3–4 times) sensitivity of PET-TH to warming during the observed period. Under the 1.5°, 2.0°, and 2.5°C warming worlds, global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 GCMs) project increases in PET and drought frequency over the majority of the regions. Drought estimates based on PET-EN and PET-MPM are consistent with soil moisture–based drought estimates and project a substantial increase in the frequency of severe droughts under warming climate in South Asia. In addition, the projected frequency of severe drought based on PET-TH, which is an outlier, is about 5 times higher than PET-EN and PET-MPM. Methods to estimate PET contribute the most in the overall uncertainty of PET and drought projections in South Asia, primarily due to PET-TH. Drought estimates based on PET-TH are not reliable for the observed and projected future climate. Therefore, future drought projections should be either based on PET-EN/PET-MPM or soil moisture.

scholarly journals Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Busschaert ◽  
Shannon de Roos ◽  
Wim Thiery ◽  
Dirk Raes ◽  
Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Irrigation Requirement ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Far Future

Abstract. Global soil water availability is challenged by the effects of climate change and a growing population. On average 70 % of freshwater extraction is attributed to agriculture, and the demand is increasing. In this study, the effects of climate change on the evolution of the irrigation water requirement to sustain current crop productivity are assessed by using the FAO crop growth model AquaCrop version 6.1. The model is run at 0.5° lat × 0.5° lon resolution over the European mainland, assuming a general C3-type of crop, and forced by climate input data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase three (ISIMIP3). First, the performance of AquaCrop surface soil moisture (SSM) simulations using historical meteorological input from two ISIMIP3 forcing datasets is evaluated with satellite-based SSM estimates. When driven by ISIMIP3a reanalysis meteorology for the years 2011–2016, daily simulated SSM values have an unbiased root-mean-square difference of 0.08 and 0.06 m3m−3 with SSM retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions, respectively. When forced with ISIMIP3b meteorology from five Global Climate Models (GCM) for the years 2011–2020, the historical simulated SSM climatology closely agrees with the climatology of the reanalysis-driven AquaCrop SSM climatology as well as the satellite-based SSM climatologies. Second, the evaluated AquaCrop model is run to quantify the future irrigation requirement, for an ensemble of five GCMs and three different emission scenarios. The simulated net irrigation requirement (Inet) of the three summer months for a near and far future climate period (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) is compared to the baseline period of 1985–2014, to assess changes in the mean and interannual variability of the irrigation demand. Averaged over the continent and the model ensemble, the far future Inet is expected to increase by 67 mm year–1 (+30 %) under a high emission scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0. Central and southern Europe are the most impacted with larger Inet increases. The interannual variability of Inet is likely to increase in northern and central Europe, whereas the variability is expected to decrease in southern regions. Under a high mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6), the increase in Inet will stabilize around 40 mm year–1 towards the end of the century and interannual variability will still increase but to a smaller extent. The results emphasize a large uncertainty in the Inet projected by various GCMs.

scholarly journals Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1107-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Extremes

Abstract. The frequency and intensity of climate extremes is expected to increase in many regions due to anthropogenic climate change. In central Europe extreme temperatures are projected to change more strongly than global mean temperatures, and soil moisture–temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to this regional amplification. Because of their strong societal, ecological and economic impacts, robust projections of temperature extremes are needed. Unfortunately, in current model projections, temperature extremes in central Europe are prone to large uncertainties. In order to understand and potentially reduce the uncertainties of extreme temperature projections in Europe, we analyze global climate models from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble for the business-as-usual high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We find a divergent behavior in long-term projections of summer precipitation until the end of the 21st century, resulting in a trimodal distribution of precipitation (wet, dry and very dry). All model groups show distinct characteristics for the summer latent heat flux, top soil moisture and temperatures on the hottest day of the year (TXx), whereas for net radiation and large-scale circulation no clear trimodal behavior is detectable. This suggests that different land–atmosphere coupling strengths may be able to explain the uncertainties in temperature extremes. Constraining the full model ensemble with observed present-day correlations between summer precipitation and TXx excludes most of the very dry and dry models. In particular, the very dry models tend to overestimate the negative coupling between precipitation and TXx, resulting in a warming that is too strong. This is particularly relevant for global warming levels above 2 ∘C. For the first time, this analysis allows for the substantial reduction of uncertainties in the projected changes of TXx in global climate models. Our results suggest that long-term temperature changes in TXx in central Europe are about 20 % lower than those projected by the multi-model median of the full ensemble. In addition, mean summer precipitation is found to be more likely to stay close to present-day levels. These results are highly relevant for improving estimates of regional climate-change impacts including heat stress, water supply and crop failure for central Europe.

scholarly journals Projections of Future Soil Temperature and Water Content for Three Southern Quebec Forested Sites

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7690-7701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Houle ◽  
Ariane Bouffard ◽  
Louis Duchesne ◽  
Travis Logan ◽  
Richard Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Eastern Canada

The impacts of climate change on future soil temperature Ts and soil moisture Ms of northern forests are uncertain. In this study, the authors first calibrated Ts and Ms models [Forest Soil Temperature Model (ForSTeM) and Forest Hydrology Model (ForHyM), respectively] using long-term observations of Ts and Ms at different depths measured at three forest sites in eastern Canada. The two models were then used to project Ts and Ms for the period 1971–2100 using historical and future climate scenarios generated by one regional and five global climate models. Results indicate good model performance by ForSTeM and ForHyM in predicting observed Ts and Ms values at various depths for the three sites. Projected annual-mean Ts at these sites increased between 1.1° and 1.9°C and between 1.9° and 3.3°C from the present 30-yr averages (1971–2000) to the periods 2040–69 and 2070–99, respectively. Increases as high as 5.0°C were projected at the black spruce site during the growing season (June) for the period 2070–99. Changes in annual-mean Ms were relatively small; however, seasonally Ms is projected to increase in April, because of earlier snowmelt, and to decrease during the growing season, mainly because of higher evapotranspiration rates. Soil moisture in the growing season could be reduced by 20%–40% for the period 2070–99 compared to the reference period. The projected warmer and drier soil conditions in the growing season could have significant impacts on forests growth and biogeochemical cycles.

scholarly journals Impact of climate model resolution on soil moisture projections in central-western Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 191-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eveline C. van der Linden ◽  
Reindert J. Haarsma ◽  
Gerard van der Schrier
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Soil Drying ◽  
Model Resolution

Abstract. Global climate models project widespread decreases in soil moisture over large parts of Europe. This paper investigates the impact of model resolution on the magnitude and seasonality of future soil drying in central-western Europe. We use the general circulation model EC-Earth to study two 30-year periods representative of the start and end of the 21st century under low-to-moderate greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5). In our study area, central-western Europe, at high spatial resolution (∼25 km) soil drying is more severe and starts earlier in the season than at standard resolution (∼112 km). Here, changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and local soil moisture feedbacks lead to enhanced evapotranspiration in spring and reduced precipitation in summer. A more realistic position of the storm track at high model resolution leads to reduced biases in precipitation and temperature in the present-day climatology, which act to amplify future changes in evapotranspiration in spring. Furthermore, in the high-resolution model a stronger anticyclonic anomaly over the British Isles extends over central-western Europe and supports soil drying. The resulting drier future land induces stronger soil moisture feedbacks that amplify drying conditions in summer. In addition, soil-moisture-limited evapotranspiration in summer promotes sensible heating of the boundary layer, which leads to a lower relative humidity with less cloudy conditions, an increase in dry summer days, and more incoming solar radiation. As a result a series of consecutive hot and dry summers appears in the future high-resolution climate. The enhanced drying at high spatial resolution suggests that future projections of central-western European soil drying by CMIP5 models have been potentially underestimated. Whether these results are robust has to be tested with other global climate models with similar high spatial resolutions.

scholarly journals High-Resolution Future Projections of Temperature and Precipitation in the Canary Islands

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 7846-7856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Expósito ◽  
Albano González ◽  
Juan C. Pérez ◽  
Juan P. Díaz ◽  
David Taima
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Canary Islands ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract The complex orography of the Canary Islands favors the creation of microclimates, which cannot be studied using global climate models or regional models with moderate resolution. In this work, WRF is used to perform a dynamic climate regionalization in the archipelago, using the pseudo–global warming technique to compute the initial and boundary conditions from a reanalysis dataset and from results of 14 global climate models. The simulations were performed for three decades, one at present (1995–2004) and two in the future (2045–54 and 2090–99), and for two different greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), defined in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The obtained results, at a 5-km horizontal resolution, show a clear dependence of temperature increase with height and a positive change in diurnal temperature range, which is mainly due to a reduction in soil moisture and a slight decrease in cloud cover. This negative change in soil moisture is mainly a consequence of a decrease in precipitation, although the evaluation of simulated reduction in precipitation does not show statistical significance in most of the Canary Islands for the analyzed periods and scenarios.

scholarly journals Evaluating CMIP5 Model Agreement for Multiple Drought Metrics

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 969-988 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Ukkola ◽  
A. J. Pitman ◽  
M. G. De Kauwe ◽  
G. Abramowitz ◽  
N. Herger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Model Agreement

Abstract Global climate models play an important role in quantifying past and projecting future changes in drought. Previous studies have pointed to shortcomings in these models for simulating droughts, but systematic evaluation of their level of agreement has been limited. Here, historical simulations (1950–2004) for 20 models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed for a variety of drought metrics and thresholds using a standardized drought index. Model agreement was investigated for different types of drought (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) and how this varied with drought severity and duration. At the global scale, climate models were shown to agree well on most precipitation drought metrics, but systematically underestimated precipitation drought intensity compared to observations. Conversely, simulated runoff and soil moisture droughts varied significantly across models, particularly for intensity. Differences in precipitation simulations were found to explain model differences in runoff and soil moisture drought metrics over some regions, but predominantly with respect to drought intensity. This suggests it is insufficient to evaluate models for precipitation droughts to increase confidence in model performance for other types of drought. This study shows large but metric-dependent discrepancies in CMIP5 for modeling different types of droughts that relate strongly to the component models (i.e., atmospheric or land surface scheme) used in the coupled modeling systems. Our results point to a need to consider multiple models in drought impact studies to account for high model uncertainties.

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models
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